Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cubs Kyle Hendricks Jersey .J. Ellis hit an RBI single in the ninth inning, Hanley Ramirez hit a tape-measure, three-run homer in the first against Cliff Lee and the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Philadelphia Phillies 4-3 on Saturday night. Authentic Cubs Jerseys For Sale . The actual winners on transfer deadline day are those clubs such as Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City who were well prepared and managed to get their main incoming business done well ahead of the transfer window closing. Tottenham were able to add seven players by spending over 100 million pounds and also ensured maximum return for the Gareth Bale transfer to Real Madrid by managing the move superbly. http://www.cheapcubsauthenticjerseys.com/?tag=cubs-albert-almora-jr-jersey . Plata blasted a rising shot to the upper left corner for his team-leading seventh goal of the season. He got the kick after referee Allen Chapman ruled Chris Tierney fouled John Stertzer in the penalty area. Cubs Alec Mills Jersey .Cowboys owner Jerry Jones seems to be leaning the fiscally responsible way.Let me put it like this: Its going to be a challenge, Jones said of re-signing both of Dallas biggest potential free agents. Cheap Cubs Replica Jerseys . - Urijah (The California Kid) Faber finds himself in an unaccustomed position Saturday night at UFC 175 — on the preliminary card.MINNEAPOLIS - It can be easy to forget the electricity that crackled through Target Center every time Ricky Rubio walked to the scorers table to check in during his rookie season with Minnesota.That was way back in 2011, a lifetime in the NBA. The flashy Spaniard was a game-changer that first season, breathing new life into a downtrodden franchise and had the lowly Timberwolves nearing a playoff berth when he went down with a major knee injury in early March.Three years after his debut, essentially two years after his left knee was surgically repaired and three days before the deadline to extend his rookie contract, Rubio feels like hes as close as hes ever been to recapturing that old magic.If you look at the stats, Im not a big guy to put up a lot of numbers, Rubio told The Associated Press on Tuesday before boarding a plane to Memphis for Wednesdays season opener. I think what I do is change the game. I can do it from defence. I can do it with a couple steals. I can do it by getting the ball to a player who is hot. ... Winning games — thats what I want to do.Thats what he did as a rookie. His long-scrutinized shooting has never been worse than it was that first season (35.7 per cent), but he found numerous other ways to impact the game.With his hair flopping and the ball zipping to open teammates, a team that had won just 32 games combined over the previous two seasons and had not made the playoffs for seven straight years was 21-19 and nearing the eighth seed when Minnesota hosted the Lakers on March 9.I was coming from a winning team and coming here, knowing they only won like 17 or 15 games the season before, it was kind of shocking. But I was trying to bring everything I learned during my years overseas in Europe and try to change the mentality, he said.That night, Rubio tore two knee ligaments in the closing moments of the close loss, and the Wolves season quickly swirled down the drain. Kevin Love was injured as well and the team would only win five more games.Rubio rreturned to play in 57 games in the next season and all 82 last year, but he wasnt the same player.dddddddddddd He shot 36 per cent in 2012-13 and 38 per cent last season. Critics point to those numbers as reason for the Wolves to be cautious in signing him to a big-money extension.The whole season last year was trying to get back that feeling, Rubio said. I was feeling 100 per cent healthy, but you never know when youre healthy 100 per cent. I think this summer I could finally workout on my body, could make a couple steps forward. I felt pretty good in the (FIBA) World Cup. My quickness was 100 per cent back.In six preseason games this year, Rubio averaged 11.3 points in 22.5 minutes and shot 43.5 per cent from the field, but only 20 per cent on 3s. He also averaged 4.8 free throw attempts while showing more aggressiveness.Coach Flip Saunders said Rubios new-found mentality is a product of a different system that puts the ball in his hands more and gives him more responsibility for where the shots come from. That, coupled with Loves departure for Cleveland, has given Rubio more freedom to call his own number than in the past.Hes shown good leadership, Saunders said. I like the fact that hes a willing learner. I like the fact that he works hard. Like all young players, they all have things they have to work on. But he works at his deficiencies. Hes extremely competitive and he wants to win.If the Timberwolves are going to avoid taking a huge step back after trading Love, Rubio is going to have to lead the way. Youngsters Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Anthony Bennett arent ready for that responsibility and have yet to show they can make a difference in a regular-season game.Rubio did that once before, and he can feel it coming again.A lot of people put us in the 15th seed in the Western Conference, Rubio said. If they believe that, Im not agreeing with that and were going to show everybody.___Follow Jon Krawczynski on Twitter: http://twitter.com/APKrawczynski Jerseys NFL China Cheap Adidas NHL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys From China Cheap MLB Jerseys Wholesale China Jerseys NFL Jerseys China Discount Soccer Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys China China NCAA Jerseys Cheap Cheap Nike Dolphins Jerseys Cheap Nike Patriots Jerseys Cheap Nike Jets Jerseys Cheap Nike Bengals Jerseys Cheap Nike Browns Jerseys Cheap Nike Steelers Jerseys Cheap Nike Texans Jerseys Cheap Nike Colts Jerseys Cheap Nike Jaguars Jerseys Cheap Nike Titans Jerseys Cheap Nike Broncos Jerseys ' ' '